Despite the incursion of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022, natural gas continued to flow through Ukraine’s pipeline infrastructure—originally established during the Soviet Union—based on a five-year contract.
During this period, Russia’s state-owned Gazprom benefited financially from gas sales while Ukraine received transit fees.
Herman Halushchenko, Ukraine’s energy minister, confirmed that the suspension of transit was executed “in the interest of national security.”
“This is a historic development. Russia is losing markets and will face financial repercussions,” Halushchenko commented via Telegram. “Europe has already decided to eliminate Russian gas, and today’s action is consistent with that decision by Ukraine.”
At a summit in Brussels last month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine pledged not to permit Moscow to leverage gas transits for profit “on our blood, on the lives of our citizens.” Nevertheless, he briefly mentioned the possibility of continuing gas flows if payments to Russia were deferred until after the conflict.
In a statement on Wednesday, Gazprom asserted it “has no technical and legal capability” to ship gas through Ukraine due to Kyiv’s refusal to extend the agreement.
Before the war, Russia was responsible for nearly 40% of the EU’s pipeline natural gas supply. Gas was distributed through four primary pipeline systems: one beneath the Baltic Sea, another via Belarus and Poland, one through Ukraine, and one stretching under the Black Sea to Bulgaria from Turkey.
Following the onset of the war, Russia ceased most supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines, citing disputes regarding payment in rubles as a reason. The Baltic pipeline experienced sabotage, although the specifics surrounding the event remain unclear.
This reduction in Russian supply has sparked an energy crisis across Europe, with Germany investing billions in floating terminals to facilitate the import of liquefied natural gas transported by ship. As prices surged, consumers reduced consumption. Norway and the United States emerged as the top two suppliers.
Europe regarded the Russian withdrawal as energy blackmail and has initiated plans to fully phase out Russian gas imports by 2027.
Zelenskyy noted that the cessation of transits would lead to Moscow losing “one of the most lucrative and geographically strategic markets” for its gas. On a post on X, he remarked that Russia was “engaging in cynical blackmail of partners.”
According to EU Commission data, Russia’s share of the EU pipeline natural gas market dramatically declined to approximately 8% in 2023. The Ukrainian transit route had been pivotal for EU nations like Austria and Slovakia, which historically relied on Russian gas but are now seeking alternative sources.
Gazprom stopped supplying Austria’s OMV in mid-November over a contractual conflict, yet gas continued to traverse Ukraine’s pipelines as other customers filled the gaps. This year, Slovakia secured agreements to import natural gas from Azerbaijan and U.S. liquefied natural gas via a pipeline from Poland.
One of the most affected countries will be Moldova, a candidate for EU membership, which was receiving Russian gas through Ukraine and is now preparing for a challenging winter along with potential power shortages.
Alongside Kyiv’s choice to let the transit agreement lapse, Gazprom announced last month that it will cease gas deliveries to Moldova starting January 1, citing unpaid debts. Gazprom claims Moldova owes around $709 million for previous gas deliveries, a figure that Moldova has vehemently contested.
On Wednesday, heating and hot water services were abruptly discontinued for households in Transnistria, Moldova’s breakaway region with a longstanding Russian military presence, as Russian gas ceased flowing there, according to the local transit agency Tiraspoltransgaz-Transnistria.
The company advised residents to gather family members in a single room, cover windows and balcony doors with blankets, and use electric heaters. Notably, some critical facilities like hospitals were exempt from these cuts.
On December 13, Moldova’s parliament approved a state of emergency in the energy sector, as concerns grew that gas shortages could lead to a humanitarian disaster in Transnistria, which has been heavily reliant on Russian energy supplies.
Many analysts have forecast that the impending energy shortage could compel individuals in the separatist territory to migrate to mainland Moldova, seeking essential services during the harsh winter, thus placing additional strain on resources.
Moldova, Ukraine, and EU officials have consistently accused Moscow of weaponizing its energy resources.
On Wednesday, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski hailed Ukraine’s decision to suspend supplies as a victory for those standing against Kremlin policies. In a statement on X, he claimed Moscow systematically attempts to “blackmail Eastern Europe with the threat of gas supply cutoff,” including plans for a Baltic pipeline that bypasses both Ukraine and Poland to directly serve Germany.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico remarked on Wednesday that the termination of gas transits via Ukraine “will drastically impact all of us in the EU but not Russia.” Fico, who has often diverged from European consensus on Russia, previously criticized Ukraine’s stance on the transit deal and hinted at cutting electricity supplies to Ukraine in retaliation.
Russia can still supply gas to Hungary and non-EU countries such as Turkey and Serbia through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.
The ongoing decline in Russian gas exports to Europe has accelerated efforts to integrate Ukraine’s energy grids with those of neighboring countries to the west.
Recently, private Ukrainian utility DTEK received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., delivered through an expanded network connecting six countries from Greece to Ukraine—a crucial step toward reducing regional reliance on Russian energy.
In a separate incident, on New Year’s Day, Russia conducted a drone attack on Kyiv, resulting in two fatalities from debris of a damaged building, as reported by city officials. At least six individuals were injured across the capital, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
Russian artillery also led to one death and two injuries in the southern city of Kherson, according to regional authorities.
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